Take a Closer Look

I don't know about you, but this winter crap can take a hike. Snow, sleet, ice, and our favorite ovals cancelling. Even for the tracks that race in prime weather, things can still go wrong for the surface, riders, etc. - But the sour weather has me watching for the weekend stakes that appear at our favorite ovals as we are just 85 days away from the run for the roses. But who's counting?

I love to see a couple of works before making their way to the starting gate for the Road to the Derby. - If the connections think enough of running in the stake; a work or two over the oval can be worth its weight in gold. At the bottom of the program take a deep look at how fast the work went, and days between the last work and race day. Some trainers like to have the horses on a calendar plan, and the works are like getting to having a glimpse into the possible plans for this runner.

Horses that drop in class, change to a better rider, or cut back in distance are all marks to be aware. All are important and use your inner gambler to find what works for you. Me, I like to see a drop in class cutting back in distance. I know, it sounds like a great deal of homework. But it is the little things that draw your attention to a player. - I like to stay away from equipment changes over 4 years old as they've had plenty of time with the horse and they are seldomly going to benefit greatly from the change. - I like trainers with youngsters making that second time out with an equipment change. They are looking for a little something different from their charge, and if you take a look at the stats about trainers making changes, 2nd time starters, first time geldings. It is a whole lot of work, but the payoff can be just what the doctor ordered.

Watch the race replays. Then watch them again. - Look for that horse who got caught along the rail and didn't have the room. That check up at the start still had him coming on nicely for 3rd but I wonder what would have happened with a clean trip. - When watching replays, you have to be honest in your assessment. Don't try and see something that isn't there. Sometimes you'll see a bad comment line where the chart caller didn't emphasize how bad that start was or forced to check off heels down the lane.

It is the little things that count. If it were a beauty contest most of the good-looking chalk runners would win. Dive a little deeper and see if your opinion can make the difference today. Is there plenty of speed to set her up? If nobody wants the pace on paper, could your horse on the stretch out find himself on the lead today? - Keep your eyes open and pay attention to the small details. It could be the difference in tossing your tickets and finding the big score.

Happy Valentine from your team at Winning Ponies!