Kentucky Derby Picks & Handicapping
Handicapping methodology, prep race coverage, and the 2023 Derby trifecta our form caught inside its top four.
Kentucky Derby Picks & Handicapping
The Kentucky Derby is the most-bet race in North American horse racing, and one of the hardest to handicap. Twenty three-year-olds, most running 1¼ miles for the first time, on a one-off day where pace, post position, and track condition matter more than they will in any other race on their calendar. If you're looking for an edge on the first Saturday in May, this is where we share how we approach the race and what our subscribers get inside our Kentucky Derby E-Z Win® Form.
When Is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is run the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. It's the first leg of the Triple Crown, a Grade 1 stakes race at 1¼ miles on dirt, with a $5 million purse and a maximum field of 20 horses. Post time typically falls around 6:57 PM Eastern.
For full background on the race's history, format, and betting traditions, see our Kentucky Derby page.
The Road to the Derby: Prep Races
Qualifying for the starting gate isn't automatic. Three-year-olds earn Road to the Kentucky Derby points by finishing in the top five of a designated series of prep races run across North America, Europe, and the UAE between September and April. The top 20 points earners make the Derby field.
Serious handicapping starts well before race week. Following the prep trail gives you context the casual bettor doesn't have: pace figures, class relief, trip notes, and how each contender has improved (or regressed) across their prep campaign.
See the full prep schedule and current points standings: Kentucky Derby Prep Races.
How We Handicap the Kentucky Derby
Our E-Z Win® Form applies the same handicapping methodology to the Derby that we apply to every stakes race at every track we cover. No special "Derby system" that only works one day a year. What it weighs:
- Speed ratings calibrated to surface and condition (dirt vs. synthetic vs. off-tracks)
- Pace projection: who's on the lead, who's pressing, and who's closing, because Derby pace is almost always contested
- Class relief: stakes-to-stakes figures, not just top speed numbers
- Trip notes: horses who finished better than the chart says, and ones who got a free run they won't get in a 20-horse field
- Tiering: every runner gets grouped into tiers (T1 through T5) so subscribers can see at a glance which horses are live and which are pretenders
The ratings aren't market odds. Some of our top-tier Derby contenders have been double-digit longshots on the morning line. The point is to find value, not to rubber-stamp the favorite.
Our Track Record
We don't hit every Derby. No handicapper does. But when the pace sets up and the form reads right, our tiers catch the number. Here's what happened in the 2023 Kentucky Derby:
| Fin | # | Horse | Tier | Our Rank | Win | Plc | Shw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st | 8 | MAGE | T2 | #4 | $32.42 | $10.44 | $6.52 |
2nd | 3 | TWO PHIL'S | T1 | #3 | $14.58 | $4.70 | |
3rd | 14 | ANGEL OF EMPIRE | T1 | #2 | $9.08 | ||
4th | 11 | DISARM | T3 | #12 | |||
5th | 1 | HIT SHOW | T2 | #5 |
Exotic Payoffs
| Wager | Combo | Payout |
|---|---|---|
$1 Daily Double | 5-8 | $58.02$58.02 |
$2 Exacta | 8-3 | $330.44$330.44 |
50¢ Trifecta | 8-3-14 | $491.18$491.18 |
$1 Superfecta | 8-3-14-11 | $15.6K$15,643.65 |
$1 Super High Five | 8-3-14-11-1 | $194.9K$194,923.09 |
50¢ Pick 3 | 7-5-8 | $40.63$40.63 |
$1 Pick 3 | 9-14-8 | $5.2K$5,224.46 |
$1 Pick 3 (C) | 9-4-8 | $94.55$94.55 |
50¢ Pick 4 | 14-1-2-7-2-4-5-8 | $1.3K$1,318.35 |
50¢ Pick 5 | 9-14-1-2-7-2-4-5-8 | $17.5K$17,538.09 |
50¢ Pick 5 | 5-6-9-1-2-7-8-9-10-15 | $3.8K$3,757.10 |
20¢ Pick 6 Jackpot | 1-9-14-1-2-7-2-4-5-8 | $1.1M$1,094,232.12 |
$1 Pick 6 Jackpot | OAKS-DERBY | $334.2K$334,154.40 |
$1 Pick 6 (5 of 6) Jackpot | OAKS-DERBY | $1.2K$1,221.05 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 6 - 22 | $95.54$95.54 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 4 - 28 | $99.74$99.74 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 5 - 22 | $153.84$153.84 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 3 - 40 | $6.82$6.82 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 2 - 40 | $3.92$3.92 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 6 EX 22-37 | $3.9K$3,880.60 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 5 EX 22-37 | $7.9K$7,863.22 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 1 - 40 | $3.68$3.68 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 4 EX 28-37 | $22.1K$22,080.22 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 3 EX 40-35 | $801.44$801.44 |
$2 Future Wager | OAKS/DERBY DBL 29-22 | $1.1K$1,100.32 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 2 EX 40-11 | $169.94$169.94 |
$2 Future Wager | POOL 1 EX 40-19 | $56.22$56.22 |
$2 Future Wager | SIRE 16 | $53.10$53.10 |
$2 Future Wager | SIRE EX 16-18 | $7.2K$7,156.50 |
Mage (our #4), Two Phil's (#3), and Angel of Empire (#2) finished 1-2-3, the entire trifecta, inside our top four. The $2 exacta paid $330.44, the 50¢ trifecta paid $491.18, and subscribers with our form had all three horses circled before the gates opened.
Why the Derby Is Harder Than Any Other Race
The Kentucky Derby isn't just another Grade 1. A few things make it unique:
- 20-horse field. Traffic is real. Inside and far-outside posts have measurably worse win rates than middle draws.
- First time at 1¼ miles. Most contenders have never run past 1⅛. Who gets the distance is the single biggest question on the card.
- Compressed schedule. The last prep is four to five weeks out. Bounce candidates and late-prep improvers both show up every year.
- One-day market. Recreational betting pushes the favorite's odds lower than the form justifies. That's where value lives.
A Derby form that just shows you speed figures isn't going to find that value for you. You need pace, class, and tier context all in one place.
Get Our Kentucky Derby E-Z Win® Form
The E-Z Win® Form for the Kentucky Derby gives you:
- Our full tier rankings for all 20 horses
- Speed figures calibrated to Churchill Downs dirt
- Detailed past performances and workouts for each horse
- In-depth horse, jockey and trainer stats
- The same format subscribers use on every stakes race all year
See a sample E-Z Win® Form · See pricing
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is always run on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Post time is typically late afternoon Eastern.
How do horses qualify for the Kentucky Derby?
Three-year-old thoroughbreds earn Road to the Kentucky Derby points by finishing in the top five of designated prep races between September and April. The top 20 points earners make the Derby field. Our prep races page tracks the current standings.
Is the Kentucky Derby run on dirt or turf?
Dirt. Churchill Downs' main track. In rare years it's been moved off the turf onto dirt for the undercard due to weather, but the Derby itself is always on the main track.
How long is the Kentucky Derby?
1¼ miles (10 furlongs). Most Derby contenders have never raced at this distance before Derby Day, which is part of why it's so hard to handicap.
Who has the best record handicapping the Kentucky Derby?
We'll let the results speak. In 2023 our top four picks included the entire trifecta. See the 2023 results.