Turf Wars and Derby Dreams

Mar 14th, 2026

So Far In 2026 Our Exotic Predictions Have Paid $1,285,685

The Kentucky Derby trail is white-hot, the big-money stakes from the last two weeks are still reverberating through the sport, and now the calendar delivers a weekend that shifts the spotlight to the grass. Santa Anita headlines the action with a pair of graded turf stakes - the San Simeon on Saturday and the Santa Ana on Sunday - while a coast-to-coast circuit of tracks from Oaklawn to Aqueduct to Fair Grounds keeps the daily cards humming. If you're still trying to sort out what just happened on the Derby and Oaks trails, this is the breather weekend where you catch your breath before the final, furious run to the first Saturday in May.

Let's set the table. Two weeks ago was an absolute earthquake on the Road to the Roses. At Gulfstream Park, Brad Cox's Commandment - owned by the deep-pocketed Wathnan Racing operation - surged through along the rail under Irad Ortiz Jr. to win the Fountain of Youth by a neck over Bill Mott's exciting maiden-breaking Chief Wallabee. The Into Mischief colt proved emphatically that he could handle two turns after demolishing the Mucho Macho Man field by nearly seven lengths in January. Cox has the Florida Derby on March 28 circled in ink, and the colt looks like a legitimate Run for the Roses threat. Meanwhile, the much-hyped Napoleon Solo, the unbeaten Champagne winner making his seasonal debut, faded after pressing the pace and finished a disappointing fifth. The Derby trail humbles the best of them.

The very next day at Oaklawn, Todd Pletcher's Class President did something that will get your attention: in his first start around two turns, the Uncle Mo colt tracked the pace of Bob Baffert's Litmus Test, took the lead at the quarter pole, and then dug in through a bruising stretch battle with Southwest Stakes winner Silent Tactic to win the $1 million Rebel by a nose. Think about that - a horse making his third career start, going two turns for the first time, at 8-1 odds, outfighting a proven stakes winner through the final sixteenth of a mile. That's the kind of grit that wins the Derby. Pletcher lost his top colt when juvenile champion Ted Noffey went down with bone bruising, and the Hall of Famer has responded by producing three different Derby trail winners this winter: Nearly in the Holy Bull, Renegade in the Sam F. Davis, and now Class President. The bench is deep and they're all firing.

On the Oaks side, Baffert's Explora stayed perfect in Kentucky Oaks preps at Oaklawn with a gutsy win in the $750,000 Honeybee under Flavien Prat, holding off Counting Stars by three-quarters of a length. The Blame filly's record now stands at four wins from seven starts and she eclipsed $1 million in earnings. The previously unbeaten Taken by the Wind - co-owned by NFL Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw - finished a puzzling eighth. And at Oaklawn last Saturday, Majestic Oops pulled off one of the best upsets of the meeting when the 9-1 shot ran down Eclipse champion Nitrogen in the $400,000 Azeri Stakes. The 6-year-old California-bred mare swooped four-wide into the lane under Francisco Arrieta and refused to stop, holding off Regaled and beating the 1-5 favorite by a length and three-quarters combined. Trainer Dan Ward, who cut his teeth as an assistant under Bobby Frankel and Jerry Hollendorfer, called it the biggest win of his career. The Apple Blossom on April 11 just got a lot more interesting.

Now to this weekend. Santa Anita is where you want to be if you love turf racing. Saturday's $100,000 San Simeon Stakes (G3) sends a compact but competitive field of six down the park's unique hillside turf course at six and a half furlongs. The downhill start is one of the wildest configurations in American racing - horses break from a chute above the main track, barrel downhill into the only right-hand turn in the country, then sweep left onto the turf oval for the sprint to the wire.. Morning-line favorite Sumter, the 7-year-old War Front gelding trained by Richard Mandella with Mike Smith aboard, has been a fixture in Santa Anita turf stakes and finished second in the last two editions of the Joe Hernandez Stakes over the same course and distance. But the morning line is tight, with Sorrento Sky at 3-1 and Seal Team at 4-1 making this one a genuine pick-'em. Seal Team, also trained by Mandella, is a classy England-bred War Front gelding returning from a ten-month layoff after placing in multiple graded stakes at longer distances - if he can handle the sprint trip down the hill, he's dangerous.

Sunday at Santa Anita brings the $100,000 Santa Ana Stakes (G3), a mile and a quarter on the turf for fillies and mares four and up. An overflow field of eleven has been entered, led by Jonathan Thomas's three-time graded stakes winner Mrs. Astor. But this is the kind of wide-open race where value lurks everywhere. Phil D'Amato trainee Public Assembly, a Grade III winner with two course wins to her name, ran a sharp fourth in the Megahertz last out and should improve stretching out to ten furlongs. If you like deep-closing types at a price, this is the kind of race to have a little fun with the exotics.

Beyond Southern California, the rest of the country keeps things moving. Oaklawn runs a full card both days as the Hot Springs oval grinds toward the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby and the $1 million Fantasy Stakes on March 27–28 - the final major Derby and Oaks preps on the Oaklawn trail. Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park card solid everyday programs as both circuits wind through their final weeks before the big late-March stakes showdowns; the Florida Derby also falls on March 28, setting up one of the biggest single days of the prep season. Aqueduct opens the gates Saturday and Sunday in New York. Tampa Bay Downs, Laurel Park, and Remington Park round out the national menu.

This is one of those weekends in the racing calendar that rewards the sharp-eyed handicapper. The graded stakes aren't big-purse headliners, but the turf racing at Santa Anita is always appointment viewing, and the everyday cards across the country are packed with horses working their way toward something bigger. Watch the Oaklawn and Gulfstream races closely - trainers are running final auditions and tightening up their rosters before the late-March fireworks. The Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby are just two weeks away, and the picture of who's going to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May is about to come into sharp focus. Enjoy the weekend, play smart, and we'll be back next week with the heat turned all the way up.

Sign in, pick up your E-Z Win^® Forms, and hit a Big 'Un or two this racing weekend!

Will You Play the Jackpot Eight?
by Ed Meyer

The Octafecta is going to hit the windows at Turfway Park this week. I know, it sounds like a sea monster from the deep and has bettors with mixed feelings. It is a $1 base wager with a 22% takeout. - Now, this isn't eight different races, but the first eight finishers. The wager is a "Jackpot -Style" and this gets gamblers reaching in their jeans and pulling out the greens to bet.

Recent Big 'Uns

Charles Town

Mar 13 (R 3-8)

$1 Pick 6 (5 of 6)

$10,357.00

Turf Paradise

Mar 11 (R 4-8)

50¢ Pick 5

$7,158.05

Tampa Bay Downs

Mar 6 (R 1)

$1 S5 (KEY)

$6,565.40

Tampa Bay Downs

Mar 4 (R 2)

$1 S5 (KEY)

$5,446.00

Charles Town

Mar 13 (R 5-8)

$1 Pick 4

$4,755.80

Turfway

Mar 4 (R 10)

$1 S5 (KEY)

$4,751.15

Turfway

Mar 13 (R 10)

$1 Super High 5

$3,923.21

Turf Paradise

Mar 11 (R 5-8)

50¢ Pick 4

$3,396.60

Penn National

Mar 5 (R 4-8)

$1 Pick 5

$2,655.20

Upcoming Weekend Stakes Races

Saturday, Mar 14th

Aqueduct
$135,000 Jimmy Winkfield S.
Colonial Downs
$500,000 Virginia Derby
$250,000 Virginia Oaks
$100,000 Royal New Kent S.
$100,000 Sandy Bottom S.
Gulfstream
$150,000 Captiva Island S.
$125,000 Any Limit S.
$125,000 Hutchison S.
Oaklawn
$250,000 Whitmore S. (G3)
$150,000 Purple Martin S.
Santa Anita
$100,000 San Simeon S. (G3)
Turfway
$125,000 Queen S.

Sunday, Mar 15th

Santa Anita
$100,000 Santa Ana S. (G3)

Testimonials

"Dear Winning Ponies,

Another bone crushing win has been delivered by your service ($25 Super paid over $87,000!).

I took your Top Horse - Maximum Security for the Florida Derby and put it on top of the next four horses and connected for a big win.

Made a mistake by not betting the exacta or the trifecta, which paid out very nice, but this will have to suffice for now :-)

I'm pretty sure we killed the payout and were paid half of the pool for all superfectas."

- Mark A., Fort Lauderdale, FL

Picks/Results For 2019 Florida Derby

"Love the winning ponies in the mud angle this time of year just hit early pic 4 as well as 20 exb in the 3rd and in the second 5 came second woulda had 20 on the 98 dad but can't win em all and I woulda took out the pic 4 pool X 2$$$$$$$ Thanks WP"

- John O., Grand Island, NY.

Picks/Results For Early Pick 4 at Finger Lakes

3370 N Hayden Rd #205

Scottsdale, AZ 85251

Send Us A Message