Last Call at Keeneland: The Final Tune-Up Before the Breeders’ Cup
One week. That is all that separates us from the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Keeneland, and this weekend is the final dress rehearsal. A record 255 pre-entries are in for the October 30-31 championships, and the post position draw happens Monday. Saturday is closing day of Keeneland’s 17-day fall meet, the last chance for horseplayers to see how the Lexington dirt and turf are playing before the biggest races of the year. Take notes.
The weekend opens under a cloud, though. Irad Ortiz Jr. broke his ankle Thursday when his mount stumbled leaving the gate at Keeneland, and the five-time Eclipse Award winner needs surgery and will miss the Breeders’ Cup. It is a gut punch for the sport, and it has trainers scrambling for riders this weekend and next.
That includes Hit Show in the Grade 3, $350,000 Fayette. Brad Cox’s 2025 Dubai World Cup winner has won this race each of the last two years and has never lost at Keeneland, going three-for-three over the track. Now he breaks from the rail at 4-1 on the morning line, chasing a Fayette three-peat, though he hasn’t won since the Mineshaft in February. Bill Mott’s Stars and Stripes, the 3-1 choice under Luis Saez, ran second to Forever Young in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, a monster form line for a Grade 3. Bob Baffert’s Nevada Beach won the 2025 Goodwood, while Mark Casse’s Silent Tactic is the lone 3-year-old in the field and faces older horses for the first time after an Oklahoma Derby win.
The co-feature might be even better. In the Grade 2 Bryan Station at a mile on the grass, Miguel Clement’s Bottas is chasing a third straight stakes win after taking the Hall of Fame at Saratoga and the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs, with Tyler Gaffalione riding from post 4 at 7-2. Standing in his way is Cherie DeVaux’s Remember Mamba, the 3-1 morning line favorite, who is two-for-two over the Keeneland turf and adds blinkers for the first time with Jose Ortiz aboard. Don’t sleep on Casse’s Alpyland, either; he is a perfect four-for-four at a mile on turf.
Saturday is also a state-bred bonanza, with more than 30 stakes for homebreds spread across four showcase cards. Empire Showcase Day returns to the new Belmont Park for the first time since 2021 with 10 stakes worth $2.1 million. Grade 1 winner Iron Orchard headlines the $250,000 Empire Distaff, and three reigning New York-bred champions, including Empire Classic contender Bank Frenzy, are on the card. At Laurel, the 41st Jim McKay Maryland Million offers $1 million in purses on a 12-race card. Defending champion Barbadian Runner is 2-5 on the morning line in the $150,000 Classic and has won five of seven starts at the 1 1/8-mile trip. Keep an eye on Takethemoneyhoney in the Distaff, too; she is two noses and a head away from a perfect 10-for-10 and returns from a layoff dating to March.
Indiana Champions Day at Horseshoe Indianapolis opens with seven Thoroughbred stakes before the Quarter Horses take over, with purses topping $1 million. Hard Luck Prayer, the season’s star Indiana-bred 3-year-old, has won his last two stakes and is the one to beat in the $150,000 Unreachable Star, while three-time local stakes winner Spirited Justice tops the $150,000 Lady Fog Horn. Best of Ohio Day at Mahoning Valley serves up five $100,000 stakes, led by a sprint showdown between Silent Rule, winner of 12 of 13 starts, and Superwolf, riding a seven-race win streak. In the Best of Ohio Endurance, Fair and Square finished second to Who Dey in each of the last two runnings, and this time Who Dey isn’t in the field.
Out west, Richard Mandella’s Amorita returns to fillies and mares in Santa Anita’s Senator Ken Maddy down the hillside turf after a solid third against males.
Sunday, the Road to the 2027 Kentucky Derby heats up. Churchill Downs opens its fall meet with the Grade 3 Street Sense, where the top five earn points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale. The star is unbeaten Blessed Flyer, a 31-1 upset winner of the Bashford Manor who was scratched from the Iroquois after getting loose on the way to the paddock; Brian Hernandez Jr. rides from post 2. Kenny McPeek counters with Mystik Bayou, a half-brother to Derby winner Mystik Dan, and that pedigree alone makes him must-watch TV. In the Rags to Riches for juvenile fillies, Cox has won the last three editions and goes for four straight with Godolphin’s First Laugh, a seven-length debut winner at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
Sunday night, the action shifts to the sprinters. Los Alamitos hosts the Grade 1, $1.19 million Golden State Million Futurity, a dash for 2-year-old Quarter Horses and one of the richest races of the weekend anywhere. Last year, Enforce went gate to wire for trainer Chris O’Dell, holding off Ed Burke Million Futurity winner Jess Im Worth It by half a length, and this year’s field of 10 fastest qualifiers is just as loaded with speed. It is over in about 20 seconds, so do not blink.
At Belmont, the Grade 3 Glen Cove for sophomore fillies drew so many entries it split into two divisions. Ground Support, last year’s Miss Grillo winner and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, runs in one alongside the ultra-consistent Beach Heist. In the other, Life’s Dynamic puts a perfect three-for-three record on the line in her stakes debut against 8-5 morning line favorite Lion Lake. Up at Woodbine, Rapid Test is back to defend his Overskate crown.
It is a weekend of last looks and first steps: one final look at Keeneland before the world arrives, and the first real steps on the long road to Louisville. Enjoy every minute, because next week, everyone will be watching.
Our upgraded Horstradamus® ratings are off to a strong start: on Friday at Belmont, our E-Z Win® Forms hit the $1 Pick 6 for $12,186.73 and the 50¢ late Pick 5 for $7,707.99 [results]. Before Monday's draw, catch up on our Breeders' Cup picks and handicapping guide, with the full schedule for both days and some of the biggest Breeders' Cup scores our forms have caught over the years. This year's Breeders' Cup is the first on our upgraded ratings.
