What My Worst Bets Taught Me About Handicapping

People learn in many different ways. Some have to watch the races or replays to get a good idea of troubled trips and compromised efforts. Others listen closely to the race call, hear about a troubled trip, and go back to the replays or pore over the charts. This may sound a little crazy, but I learn more from what I've done wrong than from what worked. Let's talk about it and see if any of it fits you.

The Dumbest Bet I Ever Made

I was a young man, and I had never lost $100 in a day. Being young and new to the game means a lot of quiet drives home rethinking the mistakes of the day.

I had $20 left, and I loved a horse who was 7-2. He looked good, and I couldn't believe the price. If I had bet him to win, I would have had $90. But being young and new, I was going to outsmart myself. I wheeled him on top of everyone except one horse. My rationale was that I wouldn't lose my first $100. It still hurt, but it was acceptable at the time.

My key horse won by ten lengths, easily, and set a track record at 7-2. Then a 99-1 shot, the one horse I'd left out, came lumbering along on the outside and beat my 30-1 shot at the wire. The exacta paid a whopping $502, and I'm still talking about it decades later.

The Trifecta That Got Away

Years later, we had a horse running in Indiana. We really liked him, and this was before they had superfectas in every race. Easy, I thought: I was going to hit the trifecta about 15 times and bet some win money. I put about $200 into trifectas, and I was going to win the big money and the purse money too. I was sure my handicapping was better than wheeling him in the trifecta a couple of times.

Our horse won by five lengths. But the longest shot I had used, and only for third, nosed out my 40-1 shot for second. Our horse paid $20 to win, and the trifecta paid over $20,000.

Oh, I had $20 to win on him. That was nice, but making a boneheaded move like that taught me it is not a crime to use the all button. That's why they have one.

What to Take From It

We all learn in different ways, but a few things help everyone:

• Watch replays with an open mind. Take copious notes and build a horses-to-watch list for future races.
• Listen for trouble. When you're watching a race, listen for a horse that was shut off or checked up. Sometimes it doesn't make the charts in vivid form.
• Don't be afraid to use the all button. If the ticket gets too big, drop your base wager, from a $1 base to 50 cents where it's offered. Our bet calculator shows what a wheel costs before you bet it. Don't be the guy who saved $2 and missed the big one.

It doesn't matter which method you choose. Just know that you learn more from your mistakes than from your wins. The wins are easy: you score, and the plan was right. When you lose, go back and see if you could have done something different to turn the tide. Good gamblers are always open to learning and to examining what they can do to be more profitable. For more, see our 10 basic handicapping tips.

Best of luck, Ed