First Thoughts About Breeders' Cup Saturday

Halloween will bring together the best horses in the world to do battle in Lexington, Kentucky. The Breeders' Cup for a racing fan is like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and finding that $50 bill in your jacket pocket you thought you lost. Yep, it is a massive day for handicappers, and without further delay, here are some thoughts to employ before making your first wager.

Turf Sprint

• Recency is key. Play runners who have raced or had their final prep within 60 days of the event.
• Make sure your runner has prepped in a turf sprint.
• Pass on the three-year-olds in this race facing older.

Sorrento Sky is a strong late closer who should be well worth the price. He has a couple of wins on the West Coast, and Keeneland sports one of the best turf courses in the country.

Sprint

• If they have had more than three starts prior to the race, leave them off your ticket.
• You'll want a runner who is right off the pace and poised to pounce when the running begins.
• If your horse has a prep at 6f to 7f, use them over others on the turnback.
• Sharp works show readiness, and that the connections are targeting the race.

Dark Saffron won the G1 Golden Shaheen in March for the second straight year, beating Bentornato, last year's winner of this race, who is strong company to face. He came out ready to roll.

Filly & Mare Turf

• Euros have won 7 of the past 10 editions. The Prix de l'Opera and the Arc deserve extra consideration.
• Keeneland, Belmont, and Woodbine are excellent prep tracks.
• Make sure they are not coming back in less than a month off their last race. A little extra time is welcome.
• The Euros may have had their final prep facing the boys last out.

Miss Scott hails from the John and Thady Gosden yard and won the Prix de l'Opera impressively with a late turn of foot. She will cut back in distance for this race.

Filly & Mare Sprint

• Look for runners returning in over 30 days with a positive form cycle.
• The three-year-olds don't do as well as the more seasoned runners.

Ways and Means comes into the race for Chad Brown. She should sit off and relax, allowing the race to unfold. She will get moving around the far turn and should not disappoint.

Mile

• Favor Euros coming in from Longchamp and Deauville.
• Euros may have had only one prep, so keep an eye on how the works are coming into the day.
• A prior race at a mile on the turf gives you a glimpse of how they could run here.

Notable Speech won this race last year for the Charlie Appleby yard. He will set up shop in the middle of the pack and uncork a strong late rally. Appleby is an excellent conditioner, and all of his runners must be taken seriously.

Distaff

• Top-shelf trainers have dominated this race in past years.
• Saratoga preppers do well in this event.
• Stalkers have done well in past runnings.

Splendora is a Bob Baffert trainee, and the speedy mare can grab the lead or lay just off the pace in the pocket. I'm looking for a patient ride that starts moving when the real running begins.

Turf

• Euros have dominated this race over the years.
• Key preps include Irish Champions Weekend, and the Arc has played a major role.
• Top trainers over the years include Chad Brown, Bill Mott, Charlie Appleby, John Gosden, and Aidan O'Brien.
• If your runner is coming off a career best, that can be a good sign for wagering.

Ombudsman hails from the John and Thady Gosden yard, and the pace in this field should set up very favorably for his late running ability.

Classic

• Strong works have shown readiness in past runnings of the Classic.
• Runners should have tried 1 1/4 and won at 1 1/8.
• Five weeks has been the perfect downtime for horses coming into this race.

Forever Young is a player who deserves a big part of your wagering plans. He seeks to go back-to-back in this race, but the odds won't be as good as last year. Stalkers and pressing-style runners did well at Keeneland in past runnings, and he should be the one to beat here.

The Breeders' Cup is an exciting two days for handicappers, and Keeneland is an excellent venue for the weekend. Use this as a starting point for approaching the weekend.

Best of luck, Ed.